Honestly, one big factor here will be the result of the war in Ukraine. If Ukraine wins and pushes Russia out of its territories, then it will serve as a lesson and Xi will most likely stay away. However, if Putin can take any type of win out of this, keeping some of the conquered territory, then the invasion of Taiwan by China becomes much more likely. That's why the US Congress and its stance on Ukraine is so crucial. Ukraine needs to win here, otherwise the world is in for a whole lot of problems.