I have been thinking and writing about this for the past few years now. The trends are very bad. As you say, it doesn't mean that there will be a civil war, but the probability has increased and is not insignificant anymore. Although the large wealth gap is an issue, it's not the defining one. What matters the most in my opinion, is the perception of the different groups of their position in the state. This is then exploited and preyed upon by different political entrepreneurs.