Yes, that's the huge caveat there. I am predicting trouble, but not so much as to blow up the entire system. However, who knows. One little thing could trigger a bunch of chain reactions resulting in vicious circles... The thing is if the US blows, then the rest of the world will follow. The US economy is the central linchpin in the world economy. China's economy is highly dependent on exports to the US. Europe's economy is highly intertwined with the US one. India does a lot of outsourcing stuff for US companies.